Weird Economics

[mrbowler]

This is a weird poll indeed. With mainstream media reporting the strong economy, and job growth...I'm trying to get a sense of what others feel about this poll/opinion? Based on the data provided by the government the economy is in a very strong up cycle-low unemployment, etc. My thinking is that people are feeling that with the recent news with the housing market, credit(no more home equity lines/loans) that the punch bowl has been taken away sort of like when the bubble of the stock market burst.

Two-thirds of Americans see recession in the works:
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[mrbowler]

Looks like the people are ahead of the curve so far. It took almost 2 years after the real estate bubble, and all the jobs that were created to finally burst with the easy credit, and all the talk of the largest % of people owning a home. Without a rising stock market, tapping home equity, changing the bankruptcy laws-folks will have a much more difficult time spending IMO.
I guess when you reach the bottom of the cycle it will be time to talk about tax cuts again

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[FUNdamental]

A factor that is helping the economy that I don't see discussed much is retirement; with an early wave of the baby boomers retiring, or moving part time, the job market is strong because we are needing to fill those jobs being vacated. Many times, in the professional world, two lower paying jobs are made for the one job being vacated.

However, with the credit crunch starting, and the pros are telling us there will be an 800 billion dollar correction in the housing market before it's done, we are beginning to see slower major purchases like homes, automobiles, family travel, and home improvements. This situation will take a bite out of state and local tax revenue as well. It will be choppy for a while.

But hey, the President told us he was invited to the next OPEC meeting, so all should be well.

[mrbowler]

Originally Posted by FUNdamental

A factor that is helping the economy that I don't see discussed much is retirement; with an early wave of the baby boomers retiring, or moving part time, the job market is strong because we are needing to fill those jobs being vacated. Many times, in the professional world, two lower paying jobs are made for the one job being vacated.

I think to some degree that is the case with the baby boomers retiring, but based on some of the data these folks will not be able to retire completely, and many still want to stay active(job). The unemployment rate stayed at 4.6 % even though 340,000 people left the workforce for any number of reasons.