Kerry Has One-Point Lead on Bush - Reuters Poll

[mrbowler]

I plugged these results into map:

I put Bush the winner in Wisconsin & New Hampshire, and Kerry not winning any states like
colorado, new mexico, nevada. Kerry would have a very minor lead 272-266. Now if Kerry would lose Florida, but win Ohio-Bush would win 273-265

Still think Bush has slight advantage because he doesn't have to win 2 out of 3
(PA, FL, OH). He can only win 1 out of 3, and still win because he could win Iowa, MN, WI.
Florida would seem to be more important for Bush because FL counts for 27 while OH counts for 20.


Go to this Site/Url to play around with scenarios:

[Only registered and activated users can see links. Either login above or Register Now]


[Only registered and activated users can see links. Either login above or Register Now]


The state-by-state results: In Colorado, Bush led 50-45 percent; Florida, Kerry 49-47 percent; Iowa, Kerry 47-46 percent; Michigan, Kerry 48-47 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 49-46 percent; New Mexico, Bush 52-43 percent; Nevada, Bush 50-46 percent; Ohio, Bush 49-44 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 49-46; and Wisconsin, Kerry 52-44 percent.

[mrbowler]

Many Scenarios with a 270-268 Win or 269-269 Tie Also.

Yikes!

Does anyone think Kerry can win any of these?

NV
CO
NM
AR

If so what one would be the most likely? NM?

I thought that Bush would win WI in earlier guess-still sticking with that guess.

[bobbcat]

IMHO, turnout is what will make the difference. Which side is gonna have the largest percentage that will be willing to get off the duff and weather the long lines and inconvenience of inclement weather to get to that voting booth?

I think the Dems did better with voter turnout in 2000. Hopefully that will not be the case this coming week.

[luvmetender]

The polls are not accurate because they don't account for the newly registered voters, and democrats far outnumber republicans.

[mrbowler]

Originally Posted by luvmetender

The polls are not accurate because they don't account for the newly registered voters, and democrats far outnumber republicans.

That is not correct in Florida-the republicans have registered 2,000 more voters...I think we all agree it will depend on turnout-especially for various groups. I.E. Young Voters, Military Voters, Overseas Voters, Hispanic Voters, Black Voters, Young Voters, Christian Voters..you get the idea-Illegal Voters J/K

[mayor]

Thought it would be instructive to review the comments on this thread in hindsight. Polls, schmolls...

[mrbowler]

Actually Mayor the Polls were very good...within the margin of error on almost all levels of 3-4%, and if you take a look at predictions for state winners it was dead nuts except for maybe 2 or 3 states.

[mayor]

Originally Posted by mrbowler

Actually Mayor the Polls were very good...within the margin of error on almost all levels of 3-4%, and if you take a look at predictions for state winners it was dead nuts except for maybe 2 or 3 states.

The polls were wildly fluctuating for weeks. Newsweek had Bush up double digits! Zogby had Kerry +3. It was a mess. And should we even bring up the exit polls? The Kerry campaign actually thought they had the election in the bag by 5 pm on election day, before a vote was counted!

Mayor

[ShainaT]

I never understood the logic of exit polls anyhow. A random sampling of people asked something right after they vote doesn't seem to be able to tell you anything really.

[luvmetender]

Do you think you could stop with the gloating? YOU WON... be happy. Quit rubbing it in.

[mrbowler]

Originally Posted by mayor

And should we even bring up the exit polls?

Mayor

Did the release of these exit polls stir more people to go out and vote for Bush?

Did the release of these exit polls cause less people to go out and vote for Kerry?

Did the release not make any difference-because people are going to vote anyway?


Who knows-all depends on what arguement you want to make IMO. With the Election as close as it was-I'm sure the ability to nail it with exit polls were a flip of the coin.

BTW-If you haven't already bookmarked this site. It gives a good idea for avg. out the polling data. Or to come up with a estimate on Polls that have had good results in the past.

[Only registered and activated users can see links. Either login above or Register Now]

[mayor]

Luv, I'm not rubbing in the victory. I am pointing out how bizarre the polling has become. It's so unreliable. I wonder how they are going to realign on the next election cycle.